Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections: Short Analysis

On Sunday, Bulgaria will hold parliamentary elections, continuing a period of repeated early votes due to prolonged political instability. The vote will determine the composition of the National Assembly and is being closely followed both within the country and internationally, especially by the European Union and also by Russia, which has traditionally tried to influence Bulgaria.
In the past, there have been concerns about foreign interference, including coordinated pro Russian influence campaigns via social media platforms such as TikTok. Recently, the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned a Russian attack on Ukraine on X. The post was subsequently targeted by numerous pro Russian accounts, some allegedly from Bulgaria and others internationally based, although their locations could not be independently verified.

Besides Russian influence operations, there is also, to some extent, a genuine pro Russian sentiment in parts of Bulgarian society. The Bulgarian Orthodox Church is seen as divided between more pro Russian and pro Ukrainian factions. In 2024, the more Russia friendly Patriarch Daniil of Bulgaria was elected as its leader.

In a 2023 poll, when asked where Bulgaria should stand in a potential new Cold War in Europe, aligned with the EU and NATO or with Russia and Belarus, 45 percent of respondents chose the EU and NATO, 22 percent Russia and its allies, while a relatively high 26 percent said they could not decide.

We spoke with Bulgarian political scientist Ekaterina Dimitrova about Russian influence, ideological divides, and political polarization in Bulgarian society. Thank you for contributing, Ms. Dimitrova:

The elections in Bulgaria on Sunday are very important for the future of Bulgaria and the EU. Following Viktor Orban’s defeat last Sunday, all eyes are on Bulgaria. The former President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev has started his own party (which is not even officially registered) called Progressive Bulgaria. According to recent polls, his party is set to win the elections with more than 30% of the popular vote, followed by GERB-SDS which previously ruled Bulgaria for a decade. Radev was elected twice as a president but in the beginning of this year, he resigned the post leaving the Vice President Iotova (first female president) in charge. This was his second term which was set to end this autumn.

Radev’s speaking points resemble Kremlin’s interests. For example, he has said that Crimea is Russian and has been against helping Ukraine in its effort against the invading Russian army. Radev has refused to call Putin an aggressor and has often instead criticised Zelensky. His rhetoric is similar to that of Orban and other Kremlin proxies across Europe. During the elections campaign he refused to debate with other political parties and gave in total only three interviews which lacked any substance but were full of populist statements instead. He also had considerable financial backing during this campaign, often with shady sources or not fully disclosed.

Some Bulgarian analysts speak about local pro-Russian actors amplifying Kremlin talking points. We know about politicians and influencers, but what about academics?

Yes, certain academics in Bulgaria also adopt Kremlin’s viewpoints. There are two ‚celebrity‘ academics that come to mind when thinking of the Kremlin’s interest in Bulgaria. They often feature in talk shows and online youtube shows.They would often adopt the Kremlin’s talking points like how declining Europe is and how weak the European Union is. They often reach young audiences because a lot of the content is actually online. There have been also some youtube influencers from Bulgaria who have adopted the Kremlin’s talking points.

How present are professors and “experts” in this sphere with anti-EU and Russia-friendly views, for example the claim that NATO expansion caused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

The Kremlin’s talking point of NATO expansionism causing the war in Ukraine is extremely common in the Bulgarian information space and political public debate. Russia invests a lot of funds in Bulgaria in the information war funding journalists, public figures and “intellectuals” to adopt their viewpoints.
The viewpoints these “intellectuals” want to suggest is that Europe is the aggressor and that Ukraine is fascist, so Russia intervened to stop them. They further claim that the Ukrainian nation is fake and that Europe is an aggressor and Ukraine is oppressing minorities. Many Bulgarians repeat Kremlin’s viewpoints that they have consumed from social media pages and spokespeople. Another common Kremlin talking point in Bulgaria is that Zelensky is corrupt and uses drugs, a viewpoint even repeated by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Social media and Russia-sponsored public figures perpetuate these talking points in Bulgarian society which has historically been subjugated to Russian propaganda during the Soviet times (1944-1989)

Beyond interference, how would you describe the general political situation in Bulgaria over the past years?

The general political situation in Bulgaria in the past years has been extremely volatile and chaotic. Since 2021, we have had 7 general elections which cost the taxpayer millions of euros. The elections on Sunday are the 8th in a row since 2021. All these elections failed to produce a government which completed its four year term which has lagged the country behind as no meaningful reform was possible. The longest serving government of GERB-SDS took power in the last elections in 2024 but was toppled by mass popular protest in December, 2025 which was the largest for the last 20 years. It was led by young people, famously the Gen Z generation had a lot of slogans during the protest. The protests were against the endemic corruption in the judicial system and in the government presenting itself in two figures- former PM Boyko Borissov and Magnitsky-sanctioned oligarch Delian Peevski.

The most important event which happened in Bulgaria in the last 5 years is the country joining the Eurozone on 1st January, 2026. The transition finished smoothly with both currencies being used in January and now Euro being the only currency in use at the moment.