Elections: Moldova Is Under Attack by Russian Active Measures

The elections on September 28 in the Republic of Moldova are of exceptional significance. Russia has consistently attempted to shape politics in the country and to destabilize it. With the Russian-controlled territory of Transnistria, the autonomous district of Gagauzia, which is also heavily influenced by Moscow, and Moldova’s strategically important location next to Ukraine, there are several reasons why the Kremlin pursues unconventional methods here. In the sphere of information warfare, Russia has not only relied on social media campaigns. Demonstrations were orchestrated, cyber intrusions carried out, political movements supported, and vast sums of money from Russia channeled in order to tilt Moldova toward the Kremlin’s interests. Pro-Russian business figures also play a role, serving not only as financial hubs but often as organizational platforms for so-called active measures, known since Soviet times. An example was an episode in France when Stars of David were painted on walls in Jewish quarters after October 7, 2023, which was linked to a disposable operation connected to a pro-Russian businessman from Moldova. The administration under Maia Sandu (President of Moldova) has responded to these assaults, is aware of the extensive infiltration, manipulation, and influence efforts originating from Russia, and is implementing countermeasures. Pro-Russian groups that broke the law have been prohibited, and the security institutions regularly move against covert operations involving Russian participation.

Russian narratives range from skepticism toward the EU to supposed peace arguments, as well as distortions of the war against Ukraine and economic talking points. Maia Sandu, as seen with other female leaders who confront the Kremlin, is also being targeted with an intense misogynistic propaganda campaign. Similar tactics have been observed in pro-Russian smear efforts against Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), Kaja Kallas (EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy), Sanna Marin (former Prime Minister of Finland), Annalena Baerbock (former German Foreign Minister), and Beate Meinl-Reisinger (Austrian Foreign Minister).

In recent months, several pro-Russian factions were barred from the elections, which drew international scrutiny. The European Union and Western allies support Moldova financially and technically in order to strengthen resilience against disinformation and foreign interference. At the same time, energy remains a particularly vulnerable area, as Moscow has repeatedly used gas deliveries as a tool of pressure in the past.

In this election, it will once again be determined how this small nation, which also has access to the Danube, will position itself in the years ahead. Russia is exerting every effort to pull Moldova back into its orbit and away from the European Union and solidarity with Ukraine. This includes both open and hidden influence, as well as political and economic coercion, for instance in the field of energy supply.